Winston Churchill once said, “Success is not final, failure is not fatal, it is the courage to continue that counts.“
First, let me share a poem that I really like. Whenever facing adversity in life, the simple and warm words of the poem can convey a powerful message that strikes the heart.
《Mud》
Perhaps
Many unexpected challenges in life
Like throwing mud on oneself
At the beginning
You will be startled, even infuriated, even frightened
And then, gradually, you will start to contemplate
What exactly are the ingredients in this mud?
Is it the force of fate pressing down on you, or the tangled complexities of human nature?
Or perhaps it’s the rebound of desires, or even self-inflicted?
But no matter what it is,
You may see it as an insult, as pressure, as setbacks,
While I see it as nourishment for growth.
You can think about
The significance of mud to a farmer,
The importance of mud to a flower,
Perhaps you are one of those trees,
Nourishment that helps you thrive and grow.
There is warm sunlight and abundant rain,
But also foul manure and malicious attacks,
It’s not all smooth sailing,
Nor should it be.
Without these trials and tribulations,
How can one carve out a captivating soul?
Therefore, those who pass the test will encounter a wise change of heart,
Those who can change their mindset will succeed.
Mud can then transform into a badge of life!
Let’s encourage each other with these words.
For everyone, the past few years have been unforgettable and bittersweet, worth looking back on, lamenting that this life is not truly mine, when will I forget all these regrets. Recently, all around me has been filled with various unbearable things, one tragic news after another deeply pierced my heart. A talented young woman in her early thirties, who once had a brilliant resume, enviable career, and seemingly bright future, ultimately chose to leave this world. Her story has plunged me into deep contemplation on the darkest moments of life.
This woman graduated from Zhu Kezhen College, one of the top five universities in East China, majoring in economics. She traveled around the world at a young age and joined the fixed income department of a top brokerage firm after graduation. Starting with a high monthly salary, she managed to live a high society life in Shanghai through her own efforts. Her achievements are admirable, but beneath the glamorous exterior, what kind of pressure and loneliness has she actually endured?
Her passing made me see the immense pressure and life’s confusion faced by countless young and middle-aged people in high-paying industries such as finance and the internet. Those of us who once thought we could rely on our own efforts to change our destiny often find ourselves feeling lost and overwhelmed in the darkest moments, with pressure as heavy as a mountain.
Put yourself in my shoes, imagine if I were to suddenly encounter an unbearable setback at the peak of my success, how should I handle it? How can I heal and emerge from the darkest tunnel of the toughest moments?
I was reminded of the classic quote from Winston Churchill in the movie “Darkest Hour”: “Success is not final, failure is not fatal, it is the courage to continue that counts.” At that time, with the threat of Nazi Germany, Britain was facing a dark and seemingly hopeless future. Churchill, with his firm determination and fearless courage, led the country through its darkest hours. Even in the most difficult moments, he held onto his beliefs, inspired others, and demonstrated through his actions what it means to have the courage to swim against the tide.
The story of Churchill made me realize that in the darkest moments, what we need is precisely the courage to hold onto our beliefs. No matter how great the difficulties we encounter, we should believe in ourselves and trust that there will always be light ahead.
As long as there is life, there is hope!
When facing setbacks, James Soong once said, “Many sudden tests are like mud thrown on oneself. At first, everyone will be shocked, even angry, even fearful. Then, we gradually start to think about what ingredients are in this mud, whether it is the fate of the times pressing on us, or the complex entanglement of human nature.” Perhaps, this is the essence of life – setbacks and blows are part of life, all we need to do is to unload the burden and start anew.
If reality slaps us in the face, then hold on, don’t let this slap completely knock me down. Marriage hitting the rocks? Then divorce and start over. Salary cut at work? Even after the cut, the monthly salary is still higher compared to the average person. Housing prices dropped, down payment lost? Just sell the house and recover the cash flow. Even if you have children, after divorce, you can still ask your parents for help with childcare.
Effort to adjust one’s cognition, improve the evaluation of oneself in the heart, achieve reconciliation with oneself, and realize the internal logic’s consistency. Every person who encounters the darkest moments must learn this lesson. Life is bitter, only self-liberation can bring relief.
As the economist Mises once said, “in times of historical rubbish, the wisest strategy for the wise is to “lie low, watch the show, and wait.” This phase may witness a series of thrilling events, but we must maintain optimism towards individuals and caution towards the era. During these rubbish times, taking care of our physical and mental health, accumulating capital, and accumulating experiences are the best choices we can make. Alternatively, we can explore life in places where there is no rubbish time.”
In this world, each of us is like a mayfly in the vast expanse of heaven and earth, a mere speck in the boundless ocean. Before the epochs, we are but a grain of dust. And when the dust of the era falls on each person’s shoulders, it feels like carrying a mountain. This makes us realize clearly that everything in life is cyclical, whether it be glory or trough, all are natural parts.
The changing of the seasons, the rising and setting of the sun, the waxing and waning of the moon, all follow natural laws, all part of the cycle of reincarnation. The operation of the market and economy also has its cycles, like a pendulum swinging from one extreme to another. The time spent in maintaining a stable state in the middle is scarce, and behind all the revivals, prosperity, decline, and recession lies human nature. Because economic operation is composed of the activities of each individual, market operation is determined by each participating entity, and fluctuations and cycles are due to human nature. As long as there are people, there will be cycles, so in investing, one must believe in cycles.
In recent years, my experiences have taught me that after so many years of investing, the greatest gain is realizing that everything is cyclical.
Trees do not grow to the sky, even the most outstanding companies will encounter unimaginable headwinds in the face of the times. In times of adversity, the most important thing is to protect oneself, because the evolution of many things may far exceed expectations, far beyond your imagination, and one should never stick to conventions.
Returning to investing, the three key elements of success in life are timing, location, and people, with timing being the most important. The three key elements of successful investing are timing, stock selection, and allocation, with timing also being the most important. Many times, we believe we have the ability to pick various ten-bagger stocks, but in hindsight, each of us earns the alpha of the era. In the face of the trend of the times, we are all dust. For us, the most important thing is to see the trend of the times clearly, follow the major trend, and find the most outstanding asset class for this stage.
Mark Twain once said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Where there are people, there is a community, and there are cycles. According to Howard Marks, cycles do not move in a straight line, but rather in a curve. Long-term trends act like a big magnet, with the attraction of mean reversion. Therefore, after a big rise, there is a big fall, and after a big fall, there is a big rise. However, once moving towards the mean, there is an inertia of deviation from the mean. It’s either moving towards greed or moving towards fear.
In times of market greed, when fear dominates, one sees more risks than opportunities, which is a sign of mature investing. From the perspective of human insignificance and cycles, when facing the darkest moments, we need to stay strong.
To those going through their darkest times, I want to say: please do not give up. You are not alone in this battle. There are many others in the world going through the same confusion and pressure as you. We need to support each other, encourage each other, and get through this difficult period together.
Life is like a journey in the opposite direction, and I am just a traveler. Every dark path we walk is leading us to a brighter future. As long as we believe in the path ahead, one day we will see the bright side.
Let’s encourage each other!
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