Translation: 【Investing in US Stock ETFs】Dumping Apple and Snowflake, does Buffett’s selling mean that US stocks are no longer worth buying?

“ Selling off Apple, snowflake, Buffett keeps hoarding cash, can we still play in the U.S. stock market?”

Recently, Warren Buffett’s large-scale selling of stocks and hoarding of a significant amount of cash and bonds has attracted widespread attention. This move not only reminds people of his actions in the 1970s and before the 2008 financial crisis but also raises concerns about future economic recession, and even the possibility of a major economic crisis.

Historically, Warren Buffett’s two classic stock selling behaviors occurred in the early 1970s and before the 2008 financial crisis. In both instances, Buffett chose to liquidate or significantly reduce his stock holdings due to the market being overvalued, rather than predicting an impending crisis. In fact, Buffett’s investment principles have always been based on the simple yet effective idea of “not buying overpriced stocks.”

01

Buffett selling off, U.S. stocks fluctuating

Clearance operation in the 1970s:

In 1969, Buffett believed that stocks in the market were generally overvalued and he couldn’t find suitable investment targets, so he decided to clear out his stock holdings and close his investment company. Despite the bull markets in 1970 and 1972, he chose not to participate until re-entering the market after the major market crash in 1973. This operation proved his emphasis on valuation rather than predicting short-term market fluctuations.

High cash holdings before the 2008 financial crisis:

Similarly, in the mid-2000s, Buffett began significantly reducing his stock holdings and hoarding cash for the same reason of not finding reasonably valued investment opportunities. Although Buffett’s performance lagged behind the market in those years, he successfully bottomed out after the 2008 financial crisis, proving that his decision to hold a large amount of cash years earlier was wise.

Current market operations:

Today, Buffett is once again adopting a similar strategy, selling off a large amount of U.S. stocks and accumulating a huge amount of cash. This indicates that he may believe the current market valuation is too high and lacks sufficiently attractive investment opportunities, rather than simply being based on concerns about short-term economic crises. Buffett’s actions reflect his consistent investment logic: in overvalued markets, he would rather hold cash than take risks by buying overvalued stocks.

Looking at Buffett’s past operations, he does not rely on complex market predictions, but adheres to simple yet effective investment principles. While this approach is simple, executing it requires great patience and discipline. For ordinary investors, although it is difficult to fully replicate Buffett’s operations, his emphasis on market valuation and the principle of maintaining patience in investing are undoubtedly worth learning from.

In the current market, Buffett’s actions may indicate that market valuations are already high and risks are accumulating. However, whether to follow Buffett in selling stocks or not, everyone needs to make decisions based on their own investment goals and patience. As Buffett said, the key to successful investing lies in avoiding overvalued stocks and maintaining sufficient funds and patience when opportunities arise.

02

Can I still invest in the US stock market?

When Warren Buffett starts selling off his long-held stocks such as Apple and Snowflake in large quantities and hoarding cash, investors naturally feel uneasy. Does this series of actions mean that the US stock market is about to face significant risks, or even a dilemma of being difficult to continue investing in? We need to analyze this issue from multiple perspectives.

  1. What does Buffett’s behavior mean?

Buffett’s sale of Apple and Snowflake stocks is not the first time. In fact, he has reduced his holdings of these stocks in the past, but this does not necessarily mean that he has lost confidence in the long-term prospects of these companies. More often, this is based on considerations of portfolio management, risk control, and seeking other investment opportunities. At the same time, hoarding cash indicates that Buffett may believe that the overall market valuation is too high, or there is a lack of attractive investment targets, hence choosing to temporarily hold cash. Buffett’s strategy is usually based on long-term considerations and does not entirely reflect short-term market trends. Therefore, his actions are more defensive in nature rather than a clear prediction of an imminent market crash.

  1. Can we still play in the US stock market?

Whether one can continue to invest in the US stock market should not be judged solely based on Buffett’s actions. Although Buffett has reduced some tech stocks, it does not mean that the entire market has lost investment value. On the contrary, there are still many companies with growth potential in the market. Investors should consider the following aspects:

  • Industry and stock selection: In the current market environment, although overall valuations are high, certain industries (such as technology, green energy, artificial intelligence) still have significant growth potential. Investors can choose industries and stocks with long-term growth potential, rather than just following the market trend.
  • Market volatility and investment opportunities: Market volatility may increase, but for prepared investors, this is also a good time to find undervalued opportunities. Even in a bear market, some companies may perform well, so staying attentive and flexibly adjusting the investment portfolio is crucial.
  • Asset allocation and risk management: Investors can reduce single-market or industry risks through diversified investments and proper asset allocation. Holding a moderate amount of cash can also help cope with market fluctuations and enter the market at the right time.

3. Is Buffett’s action a warning?

Buffett’s actions have undoubtedly raised concerns about market valuations. However, short-term market trends are not solely driven by valuations, but also influenced by factors such as liquidity, policies, and corporate profit expectations. Buffett’s strategy is more of a defensive arrangement, reminding investors to remain cautious when the market is at a high level.

For ordinary investors, the key is not to blindly follow the crowd, but to make moderate adjustments based on their own risk tolerance and investment goals. There are still many opportunities in the market, but it requires careful selection to avoid chasing high prices and unreasonable risk exposure.

Although Buffett’s selling behavior has raised concerns about the U.S. stock market, it does not mean that U.S. stocks are no longer worth investing in. Opportunities still exist in the market, and the key is how investors identify these opportunities and manage risks rationally. Buffett’s strategy reminds us to stay calm and cautious in times of market overvaluation, while also emphasizing the importance of cash. However, each investor’s situation is different, and decisions should be based on their own investment goals and market understanding, rather than simply following in Buffett’s footsteps.

03

Interest rates have been cut, the economy is doing well, and there are still plenty of opportunities in the U.S. stock market.

The recent return of optimism in the market can be attributed to four key aspects:

  1. Softening inflation data: Economic cooling rather than recession

Inflation data for July came in below expectations, with year-on-year increases of 2.9% for CPI and 2.2% for PPI. Prices for categories such as food, clothing, new and used cars, and airfare showed monthly declines, indicating a slow easing of consumer prices. However, prices in the housing and rental sectors remain high, and the cost of motor vehicle insurance remains elevated. Although inflation in these areas is decreasing slowly, over time, these prices will gradually return to rational levels, further supporting the overall downward trend in inflation.

The slowdown in inflation is significant for both the market and the Federal Reserve. For consumers, lower living costs help boost consumer willingness to spend, further stimulating economic activity. For the Fed, the cooling of inflation makes it more feasible to achieve the 2.0% PCE inflation target. Therefore, the further decline in inflation data in the coming months will be an important reference for the Fed to adjust its monetary policy, potentially prompting the start of an interest rate cut cycle.

  1. Better-than-expected economic data: Stable consumer spending and job market

Despite concerns about economic recession due to the disappointing performance of the July non-farm payroll report, a series of recent economic data releases exceeding expectations have alleviated these concerns. For example, retail sales in July grew by 1%, well above the market’s expected 0.4%, and consumer sentiment index also surpassed expectations. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims have steadily declined in recent weeks, indicating that while the labor market has slowed down, it has not deteriorated sharply.

The improvement in economic data indicates that although the U.S. economy is cooling, it remains on a healthy growth trajectory. The growth in retail sales demonstrates consumer resilience, which is crucial for the overall economy as consumer spending accounts for over 70% of the U.S. GDP. The decline in the unemployment rate suggests that despite a slowdown in the labor market, there is no widespread wave of unemployment. These data will further support the market’s expectation of a “soft landing,” where economic growth slows down but does not fall into recession.

  1. Fed policy path: Is an interest rate cut cycle about to begin?

With the softening of inflation data and the improvement of economic indicators, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle at the FOMC meeting on September 18 have been gradually strengthening. Although the market speculates that the Fed may cut rates by 50 basis points in one go, the current economic data does not suggest the need for such an aggressive monetary policy adjustment. Therefore, the Fed may opt for a more cautious approach, gradually adjusting its policy through small rate cuts.

The Fed’s rate cuts will have far-reaching implications for the financial markets, especially given the current optimistic expectations for future economic growth. Lowering interest rates will not only reduce borrowing costs for businesses but also boost market sentiment, driving stock market gains. However, the Fed’s rate-cutting policy may also prompt some investors to reassess their asset allocation strategies, especially for high-risk, high-return growth assets. Therefore, the future direction of the Fed’s monetary policy will be a focal point for the market.

4.Market Outlook: Diversified Leadership Pattern May Emerge

Against the backdrop of slowing inflation and improving economic data, the market has recently experienced a significant rebound, especially in the technology and growth sectors. With the possibility of the Fed initiating an interest rate cut cycle, market leadership may expand from large-cap tech stocks to more industries such as industrials and utilities. Over the next 18 months, the diversification of market leadership may become a new theme, providing broader opportunities for investment portfolios.

Historical experience indicates that when the Fed starts cutting rates and the economy achieves a soft landing, the market tends to perform well. Investors may diversify away from an over-concentration in tech stocks and shift towards other value and cyclical industries. Therefore, investors should focus on opportunities for diversified allocation in future market fluctuations, especially in industries benefiting from economic recovery and slowing inflation, such as industrials, utilities, and financials. As market uncertainties gradually diminish, a diversified investment strategy will help manage future risks and seize potential profit opportunities.

Through an in-depth analysis of these four key points, it can be seen that the return of optimism in the current market has a solid foundation. With ongoing improvements in inflation data, stable economic growth, and reduced uncertainty in Fed policy, the market may enter a new cycle of recovery.

In the current environment of imminent rate cuts and relatively stable economic conditions, the following types of ETFs may be worth considering:

  1. Large-Cap Value ETFs

As the rate-cut cycle begins, a stable economic environment and lower interest rates can boost the performance of value stocks, especially those companies with robust profit capabilities and stable cash flows. These companies typically demonstrate strong resilience throughout economic cycles. Value ETFs such as Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) or iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) may benefit from this trend.

  1. High Dividend ETFs

In a low-interest-rate environment, investors often prefer assets that provide stable dividend returns, as these assets can offer relatively reliable income when rates are falling. High dividend ETFs such as Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) or iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY) are worth considering.

  1. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) ETFs

Interest rate cuts typically benefit the real estate market, especially Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), as lower interest rates can reduce financing costs and increase property values. REITs ETFs such as Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) or Schwab US REIT ETF (SCHH) may perform well in a rate-cutting environment.

  1. Technology and Growth ETFs

While value stocks may perform well in such an environment, technology and growth stocks may also continue to benefit with sustained economic growth, especially when lower financing costs are brought by interest rate cuts. Technology ETFs such as Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) or Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) can continue to benefit from long-term growth trends.

  1. Cyclical Industry ETFs

Stable economic growth typically drives the performance of cyclical industries such as industrial, financial, and materials sectors. The performance of these industries is closely tied to the economic cycle and tends to excel during economic expansions. Cyclical industry ETFs such as Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) or Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) may be worth considering.

With interest rate cuts on the horizon and a stable economic backdrop, investors may consider allocating to a mix of value, high dividend, REITs, technology and growth, and cyclical industry ETFs. These assets not only offer potential returns during rate cuts but also stand to benefit in an environment of stable economic growth.

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