Just now, the United States released a set of heavyweight economic data.
The construction of new houses in July showed an annualized total of 1.238 million households, with an expected 1.33 million households. The previous value was revised from 1.353 million households to 1.329 million households. The total number of construction permits in the United States in July was 1.396 million, with an expected 1.429 million, and the previous value was revised from 1.446 million to 1.446 million.
In addition, the August consumer survey conducted by the University of Michigan in the United States was released.
Among them, the initial expectation for the one-year inflation rate in the United States in August is 2.9%, with an expectation of 2.90%, compared to the previous value of 2.90%. The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for August in the United States is 67.8, with an expected value of 66.9, compared to the previous value of 66.4. The initial value of the University of Michigan Current Situation Index for August in the United States is 60.9, with an expected value of 63.1, compared to the previous value of 62.7. The initial expected inflation rate for the five to ten year period in the United States for August is 3%, with an expectation of 2.90%, compared to the previous value of 3.00%. The initial value of the University of Michigan Expectations Index for August in the United States is 72.1, with an expectation of 68.5, compared to the previous value of 68.8.
Regarding the interpretation of the above data, Joanne Hsu, Director of Consumer Research at the University of Michigan, stated that with the development of this month’s election becoming headline news, after Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, the sentiment of Democrats has risen by 6%. The sentiment of Republicans, on the other hand, has decreased by 5% this month. The sentiment of neutral non partisan individuals has risen by 3%.
He stated that the survey showed that 41% of consumers believe Harris is a better candidate in terms of the economy, and 38% chose Trump. Overall, expectations for personal financial condition and five-year economic outlook have increased to the highest level in four months, which is consistent with the fact that election developments may affect future expectations but are unlikely to change current assessments. However, some consumers point out that if their expectations for the election are not met, their expected trajectory for the economy will be completely different. Therefore, as the presidential election becomes a bigger focus, consumer expectations may change.
Powell will speak out
Data from the US Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-on-year in July, the lowest level since 2021.
Some analysts believe that the focus of discussion at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting will be on whether to follow the traditional 0.25 percentage point rate cut or increase the magnitude by 0.5 percentage points.
The next event to focus on is Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech on the US economic outlook next Friday (August 23) at 10:00 Eastern Time. At that time, Powell will attend the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting hosted by the Kansas City Fed (August 22-24).
Leave a Reply